🏛️ Chair Rex Scott's Property Tax Shell Game: Why Your Bill Will Rise Even If Rates "Stay the Same" | MORNING VOICE

County supervisor claims fiscal responsibility while property owners brace for higher taxes. Supervisor Scott admits unincorporated areas treated "in a discriminatory and unfair way" by Tucson Water.

May 21, 2025

close-up photography of shell beside seashore — Photo by xiaokang Zhang on Unsplash

😽 Keepin’ It Simple Summary for Younger Readers
👧🏾✊🏾👦🏾

🌄 Tucson radio show "The Morning Voice" had two important guests discussing issues affecting everyone in our city. First, Mike Noble 🗣️ talked about how he conducts surveys to find out what people think about transportation plans 🚍🛣️. He discovered that most people in Tucson aren't even aware of a major plan to fix roads and buses that would cost $2.4 billion over 20 years!

💰🚦 Later, Rex Scott, who helps run Pima County 🏢, talked about property taxes 📈 going up and how people living outside the city might have to pay more for water 💦 even though they don't get to vote for the decision-makers 🗳️. The show revealed that sometimes important decisions are made without most people knowing about them 📢🤔.

🗝️ Takeaways

🔍 87% of Pima County voters have never heard of the RTA NEXT plan despite it being a $2.4 billion, 20-year tax proposal that would impact everyone in the region.
💰 Property owners should expect higher tax bills this year through the double whammy of increased valuations AND higher rates, despite Supervisor Scott's carefully worded concern.
🚿 Unincorporated Pima County residents (about 1/3 of Tucson Water customers) face discriminatory water rates despite having no representation in city government.
🤔 Polling expert Mike Noble admitted that polls are often used by politicians to craft messages that resonate emotionally rather than to understand what voters actually want.
🚘 Despite advocacy from transit and bicycle groups, cars remain the dominant transportation mode across ALL socioeconomic levels in Pima County.
🏛️ Administrative turmoil at the RTA has delayed the transportation tax proposal to spring 2026, dangerously close to when current funding expires.
📝 Government "community surveys" are easily manipulated by special interest groups who mobilize their members to flood online questionnaires.

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The Morning Voice: Polls, Politics, and Property Taxes - What Pima County Leaders Aren't Telling You

Tuning in to the Truth: Radio Analysis from The Three Sonorans

Good morning, Tucson truth-seekers!

Today, I'm diving deep into the May 20th, 2025, episode of "The Morning Voice" on KVOI (1030 AM), where host Ted Maxwell welcomed two significant players in our local political landscape: Mike Noble from Noble Predictive Insights and Pima County Board of Supervisors Chair Rex Scott. Behind the friendly radio banter and technical glitches of their new Zoom setup lay revealing insights about polling methodology, transportation funding, and the ever-upward march of your property taxes.

As the desert sun beats down on our community's pocketbooks, I'm here to read between the radio waves and give you the real story behind what our local leaders and influencers are saying—especially the things they'd rather you miss. At the same time, they're busy planning how to spend your money for the next decade.

Noble Intentions or Data Manipulation? Mike Noble Pulls Back the Polling Curtain

The first hour featured pollster Mike Noble, who shared insights about his company, Noble Predictive Insights, and their recent polling on Tucson's RTA NEXT transportation plan. After a lengthy origin story as a Wisconsin transplant who found his way to ASU (yes, that other university) and eventually into the world of polling, Noble revealed some fascinating details about how polls work—and sometimes don't.

When caller Debbie questioned whether polling merely gives politicians scripts to manipulate voters, Noble's candor was refreshing:

"She's not wrong," he acknowledged, explaining that campaigns use polling to test which messages resonate before presenting them to the public. "Remember 'Build Back Better'? That just rolls off the tongue... Whether you liked what was in there or not, that's irregardless. They polled that, focus-grouped that, and tested it to know because you can guess or you can know."

Translation: Politicians aren't speaking from the heart or sharing genuine beliefs—they're reading from a focus-grouped script designed to trigger the exact emotional response they want from you. Democracy in action, folks!

Noble further explained the distinction between legitimate polling (using representative samples of voters) and the often-manipulated "community surveys" favored by government entities:

"When you start making that link public, you have groups that have nested interests, so special interest groups... They say, 'Hey, bring all our friends, take this survey.' And so what happens is that you just start getting it really skewed."

This wasn't just an abstract conversation—it directly applied to transportation planning in our community. Noble revealed that several development and construction groups hired his company to conduct a poll on the RTA NEXT plan precisely because they feared the official RTA survey was being manipulated.

Notice who funded this "alternative" poll? The Southern Arizona Leadership Council, Arizona Builders Association, Civil Engineers Coalition, Tucson Association of Realtors, Southern Arizona Home Builders Association, Chamber of Southern Arizona, and Arizona general contractors. Not exactly a diverse cross-section of community interests—more like a who's who of concrete pourers and development profiteers who stand to gain millions from infrastructure contracts.

RTA NEXT: The Transportation Tax Tucsonans Don't Even Know About

The most revealing moment came when discussing polling about the RTA NEXT plan—the proposed $2.4 billion transportation sales tax that would continue the current half-cent sales tax for another 20 years.

Noble's poll revealed some startling truths:

Only 13% of Pima County voters had even heard of RTA NEXT
After being "educated" on the plan, approval jumped significantly
90% of respondents said Pima County roads need improvement (no surprise to anyone whose alignment has been wrecked by our moonscape-like streets)
Cars remain the dominant transportation mode across all socioeconomic levels: "Cars are still king," Noble emphasized, even among lower-income residents

Let that sink in for a moment. A massive tax extension that would shape our region's transportation priorities for the next two decades—and 87% of voters haven't even heard of it.

This isn't democracy; it's policy by stealth. How can we claim to have public support for a plan the public doesn't even know exists?

When Noble compared his results to the RTA's own survey, he found significant disparities that suggested special interest manipulation, particularly from bicycle and public transit advocacy groups that have a vested interest in directing transportation funds away from roads and toward their preferred modes.

Don't get me wrong—I'm all for sustainable transportation options. But shouldn't funding priorities reflect actual community needs rather than which advocacy group is best at mobilizing its members to fill out an online survey?

Rex Scott: Budgets, Boards, and Bureaucratic Balancing Acts

The second hour brought Pima County Board of Supervisors Chair Rex Scott to the airwaves, discussing several pressing county issues with the carefully measured tone of a politician who knows every word will be scrutinized.

Property Tax Shell Game

Scott positioned himself as the taxpayer's champion, suggesting he's looking to lower the proposed property tax rate increase:

"I don't think we should ever go to the voters and the property taxpayers asking for more from them until we've done everything possible to get our own fiscal house in order," Scott said, sounding appropriately concerned about your wallet. "You're going to see me today talking about things that we can do to look at a lower overall property tax rate than what was recommended in the budget."

Sounds noble, right? But look closer at what's really happening.

The proposed tax rate would increase from 5.1048 to 5.2317 per $100 of assessed value, while property valuations are skyrocketing across Pima County. Even if Scott succeeds in keeping rates level (which isn't even what he's proposing), your tax bill would still increase significantly due to higher valuations.

Scott cleverly blamed state "cost shifts" for about 25% of the primary property tax rate: "The total amount of state cost shifts is right around $112 million, and that is responsible for right around 25% of the overall rate for the primary property tax."

Nice deflection, Supervisor. But whether the money goes to Phoenix or stays in Tucson, it's still coming out of our pockets during a time of record inflation and housing costs.

Affordable Housing Without a Plan?

When asked about Supervisor Matt Heinz's proposal for a 10-year cascading tax increase to fund affordable housing, Scott showed rare wisdom:

"I don't think it makes prudent sense to talk about funding a plan before you have a plan," he stated flatly. "The Regional Affordable Housing Commission is not going to have a draft plan for us until late in the fall. And I think talking about funding a plan before you have a plan in place is putting the cart before the horse."

Finally, a moment of fiscal sanity! However, one has to wonder where this prudence disappears when other tax hikes are on the table.

PEEPS Program: Library Funds for Preschool?

🔥 Pima County's Budget Reveals More Problems Than It Solves: How Pima County's Optimistic Projections Hide PEEPs Funding Crisis Hitting Libraries

Three Sonorans

May 19

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When a caller asked why the PEEPS early childhood education program is funded through the library district rather than the general fund, Scott explained that counties received special legislative permission to use library taxes for early childhood education.

"We can't do anything without permission from the legislature and the governor," Scott noted, explaining that former Governor Doug Ducey and a bipartisan legislative majority allowed counties to use library district taxes for early childhood education.

Scott assured listeners that libraries wouldn't suffer, but the arrangement raises questions about transparency in how our tax dollars are allocated. When voters approved library district funding, did they understand they were also funding preschool programs?

To be clear, early childhood education is crucial, especially for developing literacy. But shouldn't it have dedicated funding rather than siphoning resources from another essential public service?

Water Rates: Unincorporated Areas Left High and Dry

Scott expressed disappointment that his resolution opposing differential water rates for county residents who use Tucson Water failed to pass. These rates would charge higher prices to the third of Tucson Water users who live in unincorporated areas of the county, despite many having been customers for decades.

"It treats one-third of their rate payers in a discriminatory and unfair way," Scott said, noting the city hasn't conducted a comprehensive cost study of their entire system. "What they did was they were upset that they lost the lawsuit that we successfully brought against them based on their first proposal. And they used both their paid consultants and the city attorney's office to come up with a plan that may pass legal muster, but it's still not right."

RTA Drama: The Regional Transportation Stalemate

Scott acknowledged the turmoil at the Regional Transportation Authority, which is currently dealing with legal counsel issues and questions about the executive director's status. Initially intended for this spring's ballot, the proposed RTA NEXT transportation plan has been pushed to spring 2026, precariously close to when the current funding would expire.

"The impact on the region in so many different areas—infrastructure, economic development, you can go on and on—would just be very dire," Scott warned, if the plan isn't approved.

As former chair of PAG (Pima Association of Governments), Scott is intimately familiar with the inner workings of regional transportation planning. But his comments revealed a disturbing lack of urgency about resolving the administrative chaos currently paralyzing the RTA.

While bureaucrats bicker over attorneys and executive directors, our roads continue to crumble and transit needs go unaddressed. This is the perfect example of why people lose faith in the government's ability to solve basic problems.

Reading Between the Lines: What This All Means for You

Yesterday's Morning Voice revealed several important truths about Tucson's political landscape that directly impact your daily life:

The Democracy Deficit: Most Pima County residents (87%) are completely in the dark about major initiatives like RTA NEXT, yet these plans will determine how billions of our tax dollars are spent over the next two decades. How can we claim to have democratic governance when decisions affecting everyone are being made without meaningful public awareness?
Special Interest Manipulation: Both Noble and Scott acknowledged that surveys guiding major policy decisions are often skewed by special interests. Whether it's bicycle advocates flooding transportation surveys or development interests commissioning their own polls, ordinary citizens' voices are being drowned out.
The Property Tax Squeeze: Despite Scott's carefully worded concern about tax rates, the reality is that property owners will pay more next year through the double-whammy of higher valuations and increased rates. For renters, these costs will inevitably be passed along through higher rents in an already unaffordable housing market.
Administrative Paralysis: Critical regional agencies like the RTA are mired in administrative and legal disputes while pressing community needs go unaddressed. The delay in putting RTA NEXT on the ballot exemplifies how bureaucratic infighting often supersedes actual problem-solving.

The most concerning revelation is how our local decision-makers rely on polling and surveys that can be manipulated by special interests. When only 13% of voters have even heard of a $2.4 billion tax plan that's allegedly designed to serve them, we have a serious democracy deficit.

When government operates in shadows—whether through complex bureaucratic processes, technical jargon, or simply failing to communicate with citizens—it ceases to be government "of the people, by the people, for the people" and instead becomes government by special interests, for special interests.

A Path Forward: Hope in Informed Citizenship

Despite these challenges, there's reason for hope. By simply tuning in and paying attention to local governance, you're already taking the first step toward holding power accountable. Information is the currency of democracy, and informed citizens are its lifeblood.

We can demand better:

Transparency: If 87% of voters don't know about a major tax plan, that's not the voters' fault—it's a failure of government communication. We should demand clear, accessible information about policies that affect us.
Representation: County residents deserve equal treatment regardless of whether they live within city limits. The differential water rates issue shows how easily unincorporated residents can be exploited when they lack representation.
Genuine Public Input: Instead of easily manipulated online surveys, major policy decisions should involve multiple forms of public engagement, including randomly selected focus groups, town halls across diverse neighborhoods, and other methods that ensure all voices are heard—not just the most organized.
Fiscal Honesty: Politicians should be straightforward about tax impacts. Scott's careful language about "rates" masks the reality of increased bills due to rising valuations. We deserve the full picture, not just the parts that sound good on radio shows.

Our community faces real challenges—crumbling infrastructure, housing affordability, water sustainability, and more. These challenges require serious, thoughtful solutions developed with genuine public engagement. By staying informed and demanding accountability, we can help ensure those solutions serve everyone, not just the well-connected.

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