📈 Economic Folly: Why Trump's Tariff Plans Don’t Add Up

Analyzing the mathematical contradictions in the proposed tariffs and their effects on American consumers.

Jan 16, 2025

😽 Keepin’ It Simple Summary for Younger Readers
👧🏾✊🏾👦🏾

🌍 Tariffs are taxes on products coming from other countries, and they can make things super expensive for people 💸. A long time ago, lawmakers tried raising tariffs to help American workers 🇺🇸, but it backfired big time and hurt everyone during the Great Depression 😟. Now, it looks like former President Trump wants to do the same thing again, but even bigger 🚀. People are worried this could cause prices to spike 📈 and hurt families who are already struggling 🤲, making it hard for them to afford what they need 🛒.

Give a gift subscription

🗝️ Takeaways

📉 The Hawley-Smoot Tariff caused a 66% drop in international trade and worsened the Great Depression.
🔙 Trump's proposed tariffs are significantly higher than historical ones, echoing past economic mistakes.
💸 Tariffs lead to rising consumer prices and can hurt the poorest more than anyone else.
🧮 There's a contradiction: wanting to discourage foreign purchases while expecting high tariff revenue.
🏜️ High tariffs don’t automatically boost treasury funds; they harm the economy, like searching for shade in a desert at noon.

History Repeats: Trump's Tariff Dreams Meet Hawley-Smoot's Nightmare

¡Buenos días, desert dwellers! Your favorite borderlands math nerd is back. Grab your agua frescas because this economic pretzel logic is saltier than the Willcox Playa in August!

I just finished listening to the most fascinating NPR piece about our former president's tariff promises, and boy, it's hotter than a Sonoran summer sidewalk.

Well, it got me diving deeper than a monsoon wash into the history of tariffs, and wow – we've seen this movie before, and it's scarier than La Llorona.

The Ghost of Tariffs Past

Back in 1930, two congressmen thought they had a brilliant idea (narrator: they didn't). The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act raised taxes on imports to "protect American workers" – sound familiar?

Here's what actually happened:

International trade dropped by roughly 66%
Global economy cratered faster than a saguaro without water
Other countries retaliated with their own tariffs
The Great Depression got even more depressing

Trump's Time Machine

Fast forward to 2025, and our former president is basically saying "Hey, remember that thing that helped tank the global economy? Let's do that again, but BIGGER!" His proposed tariffs make Hawley-Smoot look like a garage sale discount:

60% on Chinese goods (Hawley-Smoot maxed at around 20%)
25% on Canada and Mexico
10-20% on literally everything else

Economics 101: Desert Edition

Listen, mi gente, I've seen prickly pears make more sense than these proposals. When you add tariffs:

Prices go up faster than summer temperatures
Other countries hit back harder than a jumping cholla
Poor folks get hurt worse than bare feet on hot pavement

Remember how Trump said tariffs would fill the treasury? Current tariffs make up 2% of government revenue. That's like trying to fill Rillito River with a Eegee's straw!

The Mathematical Impossibility

Let me break down this economic contradiction that's more twisted than the road up Mount Lemmon:

Trump wants tariffs to discourage buying foreign goods
Also Trump: These same tariffs will bring in "hundreds of billions"
Me, sipping my watermelon Eegee's: "But if people stop buying foreign goods... where's that money coming from?" 🤔

It's like promising your kid they'll make more money from their lemonade stand by tripling the price and telling all the customers to go elsewhere. Make it make sense!

The Desert Mirage Effect

Picture this mathematical masterpiece:

Current scenario: 100 cars imported at 2.5% tariff = $750 on a $30,000 car
Trump's dream: 60% tariff = $18,000 per car
Reality check: Who's buying an $48,000 Honda Civic?

As they say at El Güero Canelo, "You can't sell hot dogs if nobody can afford them!" Same principle applies here, folks.

The Treasury's Empty Promises

Trump claims these tariffs will fill the federal treasury like monsoon rain in a wash. But here's the thing - it's economically impossible to:

Force people to stop buying foreign goods (through high tariffs)
AND collect massive revenue from people buying those same foreign goods
AND not cause inflation that hits working families harder than a summer heatwave

The Bottom Line

This economic plan has more holes than the shooting range at Redington Pass. As my friend Erica York from the Tax Foundation said in that NPR interview, "You can have a tariff for revenue or you can have a tariff for restriction, but you can't have both."

It's like trying to win the lottery by not buying tickets - mathematically impossible, logically absurd, and frankly, more confusing than trying to explain to out-of-towners why we celebrate rodeo days!