🏙️ Tucson's Booming Industrial Real Estate 📈, Stock Market Gains 💹, and Warnings of Authoritarianism ⚠️
Explore the thriving industrial real estate market in Tucson, the soaring stock market, and concerns over potential authoritarian tendencies in the incoming administration.
Based on the 12/3/24 Buckmaster Show on KVOI-1030AM.
Today’s show discusses the Smoot-Hawley Act regarding Tariffs. A scene from "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" trends after President-elect Trump announced his tariff plans. In the 1986 film, Bueller's teacher, played by Ben Stein, discusses how high tariffs affected the US economy after the Great Depression while students zone out.
Trump stated on Truth Social that he would impose a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, criticizing open borders. The clip (above) resurfaced as Trump reinforced his tariff promise, referencing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which intended to boost the economy but instead led to retaliatory tariffs and worsened the situation.
🙊 Notable quotes from the show
"I think labor is less expensive here. I think the cost of living is less expensive." - Alex Demeroutis, on why Tucson is attractive for industrial development
"Tariffs as a bargaining tool might make some sense. They also might make some strategic sense when you're trying to get back to manufacturing stuff that you've kind of given up and ceded to elsewhere in the world. But that takes time." - Shelly Fishman, on the risks of arbitrary tariff imposition
"I'm very worried about certain trends that I observe or that might come up in the new government. And I see very strong parallels to what happened in 1933. Hitler was not really elected." - Dr. Albrecht Classen, on parallels between the current political climate and the rise of Nazism
Dr. Albrecht Classen, a renowned scholar of medieval history at the University of Arizona, warned the incoming administration's rhetoric and policies are eerily reminiscent of the rise of Nazism in 1930s Germany.
😽 Keepin’ It Simple Summary for Younger Readers
👧🏾✊🏾👦🏾
🏢 Tucson is building lots of big warehouses and stores. 🤑 The stock market is doing really well, but the new president might make prices go up with new taxes on things we buy from other countries. 🔴 Some people are worried the new president might try to be a dictator, like what happened in Germany a long time ago.
🗝️ Takeaways
📈 Tucson's Booming Industrial Real Estate Market
Developers Drawn to Tucson's Lower Costs and Strategic Location
Tucson's industrial real estate sector is thriving, with large warehouse and fulfillment center projects on the rise
Developers are attracted to Tucson's favorable business climate, including lower labor and living costs
Major upcoming projects are designed with flexibility to accommodate both larger tenants and smaller businesses
The successful leasing of recent speculative developments has demonstrated the strong demand in the market
🤑 Stock Market Soars, but Tariff Threats Loom
Concerns Over Potential Inflationary Impacts of Protectionist Policies
The stock market has seen impressive gains in 2024, with the Dow up 18.3%, the S&P 500 up 27.2%, and the NASDAQ up 31.3%
However, there are concerns about the inflationary effects of potential new tariffs imposed by the incoming administration
Experts draw parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which is widely believed to have worsened the Great Depression
There are fears that renewed protectionism could lead to retaliation from major trading partners, further harming the economy
🔴 Warnings of Authoritarian Tendencies and Populism
Parallels Drawn to the Rise of Nazism in Germany
A scholar of medieval history expressed deep concerns about the incoming administration's rhetoric and policies
Troubling trends of populist and authoritarian movements are being observed across Europe, with similar dynamics emerging in the U.S.
There are fears that democratic institutions may be eroding, with the potential for media censorship and the establishment of concentration camps
Vigilance and close monitoring of the situation are deemed essential to prevent a slide towards authoritarianism
⏬ Jump to the 🦉 Three Sonorans Commentary based on:
📻 What They Discussed
The Buckmaster Show on Tuesday, December 3, 2024
The Buckmaster Show is a long-running radio program hosted by Bill Buckmaster, featuring interviews with guests on business, finance, and the local community. On this episode, Buckmaster spoke with three expert guests:
Alex Demeroutis, an industrial specialist with Cushman & Wakefield Picor;
Shelly Fishman, a financial advisor and business consultant, and
Dr. Albrecht Classen, a distinguished professor of German studies at the University of Arizona.
📈 The Booming Industrial Real Estate Sector
Alex Demeroutis provided an in-depth look at Tucson's thriving industrial real estate market. He noted that large warehouse and fulfillment center projects have increased, with developers drawn to Tucson's favorable business climate, lower costs, and strategic location.
"I think labor is less expensive here. I think the cost of living is less expensive," Demeroutis explained. He highlighted that the recent completion of two major speculative projects, one near the airport and another at Tangerine and I-10, have been successfully leased, demonstrating the strong demand in the market.
Demeroutis also discussed upcoming pipeline projects, including Lincoln Property Company's I-10 International development and TPA's Butterfield Logistics Center. He noted that these new buildings are being designed with flexibility in mind, able to accommodate smaller tenants and larger users.
"The whole project is a four building project, but in their phase one, it's two buildings going up, one's about 160,000 square feet and the other is 215,000 square feet. And then the other two buildings, you know, yeah, yeah, big buildings, they can, they can demise down to probably, I would guess, maybe 25 to 50,000 square feet." This adaptability is important in attracting a diverse tenant mix to the market.
Overall, Demeroutis expressed confidence in Tucson's continued strength of its industrial real estate sector, stating, "The proof is in the pudding, right? They built it, and they filled it."
He believes Tucson's favorable business environment, strategic location, and lack of natural disaster risks make it an appealing destination for industrial development.
💰 The Soaring Stock Market and Looming Inflationary Concerns
Shelly Fishman offered a positive update on the stock market's performance in 2024, with the Dow up 18.3%, the S&P 500 up 27.2%, and the NASDAQ up 31.3% year-to-date. However, Fishman also voiced concerns about the potential inflationary impacts of President-elect Trump's threats to impose new tariffs.
"Tariffs as a bargaining tool might make some sense. They also might make some sense strategically when you're trying to get back to manufacturing stuff that you've kind of given up and ceded to elsewhere in the world," Fishman said. "But that takes time. Takes time to build that manufacturing capacity and to ramp up to that kind of thing."
He cautioned that imposing tariffs arbitrarily could have a detrimental inflationary effect, as importers would be forced to pass on the increased costs to consumers.
Fishman also drew parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which is widely regarded as exacerbating the Great Depression through its protectionist policies. He noted that the threat of retaliation from major trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada could have similar negative consequences for the U.S. economy.
"If we do the same to Europe, that'll be four of our four top trading partners. And I don't know. This is isolationism, essentially. And maybe that's what this country wants right now. We'll see how it affects the economy."
🔍 Examining the Risks of Authoritarianism and Populism
Dr. Albrecht Classen, a renowned scholar of medieval history, provided a sobering perspective on the parallels between the current political climate and the rise of Nazism in Germany.
He expressed deep concern about the incoming administration's rhetoric and policies, noting that the president-elect's reported affinity for Hitler's memoir "Mein Kampf" is "really worrying."
Classen highlighted the troubling trend of populist and authoritarian movements across Europe, cautioning that "there are very ominous signs" that democratic institutions may be eroding.
"You have to wait and see how it really all develops. But I'm afraid that there are also a lot of people coming into the government who deny vaccines, who deny signs, who reject education. It might not go as fast or as dangerous as it did in Germany. And there were very different situations because Germans were very unemployed. There was famine, the side treaty."
The professor emphasized the importance of vigilance: "I think it really behooves us to watch the signs and be in our guide. What might happen? Once the media are shut down, let's say they might decide to shut down certain TV stations; they might want to shut down your radio station. Yeah. Just because."
Classen drew parallels to the actions taken by the Nazis in the 1930s, such as shutting down opposition media and establishing concentration camps, warning that similar authoritarian tendencies could emerge if left unchecked.
🦉 Three Sonorans Commentary
📈 Tucson's Industrial Real Estate Boom: A Double-Edged Sword?
On the surface, the growth of Tucson's industrial real estate market appears to be a positive development. Companies are flocking to the city, drawn by its lower labor and living costs and its strategic location.
As Alex Demeroutis, an industrial specialist with Cushman & Wakefield Picor, explained, "I think labor is less expensive here. I think the cost of living is less expensive." This has led to a surge in large-scale warehouse and fulfillment center projects, with major developers like Lincoln Property Company and TPA investing in the region.
However, as we've seen repeatedly, the benefits of economic growth do not always trickle down to the communities that need it most.
While these new industrial developments may create jobs, we must scrutinize the quality of those jobs, the wages they offer, and the potential environmental impact of these facilities. Tucson has long struggled with income inequality and environmental justice issues, and we cannot allow these new industrial projects to exacerbate those problems.
Moreover, the fact that these developments are being built on "speculation" should give us pause.
Demeroutis acknowledged that "there is some concern" about whether these projects can be fully leased, even as the developers forge ahead. This raises the specter of corporate welfare and the potential for taxpayer-funded bailouts should the market cool.
🔴 The Specter of Authoritarianism: Troubling Parallels to the Past
While the economic news may seem positive on the surface, the political landscape is far more troubling.
As Dr. Albrecht Classen, a renowned scholar of medieval history at the University of Arizona, warned, the incoming administration's rhetoric and policies are eerily reminiscent of the rise of Nazism in 1930s Germany.
Classen expressed deep concerns about the president-elect's reported affinity for Hitler's memoir "Mein Kampf," stating, "That's really worrying." He also highlighted the troubling trend of populist and authoritarian movements across Europe, cautioning that "there are very ominous signs" that democratic institutions may be eroding.
The professor's warnings should not be taken lightly. We have already seen the incoming administration's attempts to demonize and scapegoat marginalized communities, echoing the tactics employed by the Nazis. The threat of media censorship, the establishment of concentration camps, and the potential undermining of democratic checks and balances are all deeply alarming.
As Classen eloquently stated, "I think it really behooves us to watch the signs and to be in our guide. What might happen?" We must heed these words and remain vigilant in the face of growing authoritarianism, lest we risk sliding down a path that leads to the same tragic outcomes that befell Germany nearly a century ago.
🌍 The Interconnected Struggles for Justice
The challenges facing Tucson's industrial development and the ominous political trends at the national level are not isolated phenomena. They are part of a larger, interconnected social, economic, and environmental justice struggle. We must recognize how these issues intersect and how they impact our communities.
The concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few, the exploitation of workers and the environment, and the rise of authoritarian tendencies all stem from the same systemic issues that have plagued our society for far too long. We must confront these problems head-on and be committed to equity, sustainability, and the defense of our democratic institutions.
Only by standing united across lines of race, class, and geography can we hope to build a more just and equitable future that prioritizes the well-being of all people and the planet over the narrow interests of the powerful few. The stakes have never been higher, and the time for action is now.
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👯 People Mentioned
Bill Buckmaster - Host of the Buckmaster Show
Alex Demeroutis - Industrial specialist with Cushman & Wakefield Picor
Shelly Fishman - Financial advisor and business consultant
Dr. Albrecht Classen - University of Arizona distinguished professor of German studies
Adolf Hitler - Former chancellor of Germany, leader of the Nazi party