🔥 Trump's Economic Facade Crumbles in First 100 Days - Arizona Pollster Reveals Tethered Economy Rating Spells Disaster for GOP
🚦 RTA Leadership Under Fire: Democracy Derailed by "Thumb on the Scale" Executive - Heinz Spearheads Accountability Push
Based on the Buckmaster Show for 4/28/25, a daily radio show in Tucson, AZ, interviewing local newsmakers. Analysis and opinions are my own.
😽 Keepin’ It Simple Summary for Younger Readers
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The Buckmaster Show talked to people who study what Arizonans think and care about. They found out three big things: First, President Trump promised to fix the economy, but people aren't seeing that happen. Second, houses in Arizona used to be cheap, but now they're so expensive that some people are thinking about moving away. Third, there's a plan to add a small tax that would help build affordable homes for families. The people in charge of our roads and buses might also be having problems working together, which could make it harder to fix our streets and transportation.
🗝️ Takeaways
📉 Trump's economic approval rating is now "tethered" to his overall approval, sitting at negative 12 points and threatening GOP midterm prospects
🏘️ Only 13% of Arizonans believe housing is affordable, with 28% considering leaving the state due to housing costs
💸 Residents earning under $50,000 are hit hardest by housing costs, with 32% contemplating leaving Arizona
🚌 RTA Executive Director Farhad Moghimi avoided required performance reviews while allegedly filtering information to the board
🏗️ Supervisor Heinz proposes 3-cent property tax increase over 10 years to generate $207 million for affordable housing
🏥 Federal budget negotiations threaten cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, potentially forcing rural health centers to close
Trump's Economic Promises Implode While Arizona Housing Crisis Deepens: Buckmaster Show Reveals All
In the latest installment of the Buckmaster Show, host Bill Buckmaster delivered a masterclass in local journalism. He skillfully extracted vital information from his guests that reveals Arizonans' precarious economic and political landscape.
The April 28th broadcast featured pollster Mike Noble dropping bombshells about Trump's plummeting approval ratings and a housing affordability crisis that threatens to alter Arizona's population dynamics fundamentally.
Later, David Higuera, pinch-hitting for Supervisor Matt Heinz, pulled back the curtain on the dysfunctional leadership at the Regional Transportation Authority and outlined a bold new proposal to address our housing crisis.
Trump's Economic House of Cards Collapses in First 100 Days
Mike Noble, founder of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, returned to the Buckmaster Show for the first time since before the 2024 election with a brutal assessment of Trump's second term.
Just 100 days in, and the economic miracle Trump promised on the campaign trail has devolved into what Noble describes as economic "uncertainty" and "chaos."
"Trump had a -12 job approval rating," Noble revealed about recent national polling numbers, adding that his firm plans to poll Arizona voters in mid-May. "What's interesting is that we're seeing his job approval rating with the economy, which will be tethered to his overall approval rating."
This represents a dramatic shift from Trump's first term, when voters consistently gave him high marks on economic issues despite disapproving of his overall performance. Now, as Noble explains, Trump's economic reputation is collapsing under the weight of inflationary pressures and his ill-conceived tariff war.
Imagine that—the "great businessman" who convinced working-class voters he alone could fix their economic woes is watching his economic credibility evaporate faster than Arizona groundwater on a July afternoon.
When Buckmaster pointed out that Democrats failed to communicate economic improvements under their watch during the campaign effectively, Noble agreed: "When we did a postmortem survey... it was very clear, like they really expected relief on inflation and relief on these economic woes. And I feel like the electorate has seen anything but that."
Noble also highlighted the ominous warning signs facing Trump and the Republican party: "Another recent national poll I just saw... 70% of people think that we're heading into a recession soon."
Noble assessed Trump's economic strategy with characteristic bluntness: "I think he had good will going about it. I just think the strategy and execution has not been well thought out."
Well, that's certainly one way to describe recklessly imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike without any coherent economic plan beyond "tariffs sound tough." Is anyone surprised that haphazardly throwing wrenches into the global financial system while giving tax cuts to billionaires isn't magically solving inflation?
Noble warned that unless Trump can course-correct before the midterms, "it could be really, really bad for Republicans." The political prognostication was clear: Trump's electoral success hinged on economic competence, and that narrative is unraveling with remarkable speed.
Arizona's Housing Crisis: From Affordable Haven to Mass Exodus?
Perhaps the most shocking revelation from Noble's appearance was the dramatic shift in Arizona's housing landscape. Affordable housing was one of Arizona's primary attractions for decades, particularly for Californians fleeing high costs. Now, Noble's polling reveals that affordability has become Arizona's third most pressing concern, behind only inflation and immigration.
"Only 13% of Arizona voters said housing is affordable," Noble explained. "28% [said] housing is so expensive that I've considered moving out of the state."
Let that sink in—nearly a third of Arizonans are contemplating leaving the state that once advertised itself as an affordable paradise. The American Dream is increasingly becoming "drive until you qualify," and apparently, that drive now extends beyond our state borders.
Noble's firm was actually the first to identify this seismic shift: "We were actually the first to call out affordable housing as an issue in the Southwest region. Next thing, you know, it was a top-three issue. And then everybody else started following suit once we discovered that."
The crisis hits hardest among Arizona's most vulnerable populations. Among those earning under $50,000 annually, 32% have considered fleeing the state, compared to just 18% of those earning over $100,000. Similarly, 30% of those with a high school education or less have contemplated leaving, versus only 17% of post-graduates.
Once again, economic inequality reveals itself not just in statistics but in forced displacement. The wealthy adapt while working families contemplate uprooting their entire lives. This isn't just about housing—it's about who gets to call Arizona home.
Noble pointed to the shocking rise in housing costs: "The Arizona housing market, the cost almost got up 50%. And four years now, you know, throw on top of that, the cost of borrowing has gone up. And then even on top of that...the average wage in Arizona is actually lower than the national average."
This represents an existential threat to a state that has based its economic development model on population growth for decades. "If you're the party in power, let alone you're in a worse economic position than you were two years ago, I mean, they're going to have your head on a spike," Noble warned about the political consequences.
RTA Drama: Power Struggles and Democracy Derailed
Background:
In the show's second half, David Higuera, Chief of Staff for Pima County Supervisor Matt Heinz, detailed a growing controversy at the Regional Transportation Authority that threatens to derail crucial transportation funding.
Dr. Heinz, newly appointed as Pima County's representative to the RTA and Pima Association of Governments (PAG), immediately requested a performance review for Executive Director Farhad Moghimi. According to Moghimi's contract, this review should happen annually, but it has been strategically avoided.
"He had been repeatedly failing to agendaize his own performance review," Higuera explained. "I think it looks like from our research, he was sort of foregoing any potential raises over these last several years just in order to not have a performance review."
What a cunning strategy—avoid accountability at all costs, even if it means forgoing raises. If only the rest of us working stiffs could simply opt out of performance reviews when we're not doing our jobs properly.
The controversy centers on allegations that Moghimi has consistently manipulated information, filtered committee recommendations, and shown favoritism toward smaller communities over Tucson and Pima County.
Despite representing nearly 55% of the county's population, Tucson gets just one vote (11%) at the RTA table—the same as much smaller jurisdictions.
"The bigger issue I think that Matt has such a problem with is just the overall lack of transparency, the overall lack of just being straightforward," Higuera said.
With the clock ticking on RTA funding (set to expire in May 2026), this leadership crisis threatens vital transportation projects throughout the region. Already, plans to place RTA continuation on the November 2024 ballot have been abandoned, pushing the deadline to March 2026—dangerously close to the expiration date.
This is what happens when democratic institutions are stacked against population centers. The tactical subversion of transparency leaves crucial infrastructure decisions hamstrung while population and climate pressures only intensify.
A Bold Three-Cent Solution to the Housing Crisis
In the final segment, Higuera outlined Supervisor Heinz's ambitious proposal to address the housing crisis: a 3-cent increase on primary property tax each year for the next decade, specifically to fund affordable housing development. The plan would sunset after ten years, generating approximately $207 million.
"Each homeowner, if this were to pass, the average homeowner next year would see about a $7 increase in their tax bill," Higuera explained. By year ten, that would grow to about $79 annually per household.
The money would potentially fund around 12,000 new affordable housing units—a significant step toward meeting the county's identified need for 38,500 affordable units over the next decade for families making less than $49,000 annually.
Finally, someone proposing an actual solution rather than just wringing their hands about the "free market" that has spectacularly failed to provide affordable housing. For the price of a couple of lattes, homeowners could help ensure that working families, seniors, and young professionals can actually afford to live in our community.
The Board of Supervisors will vote on this policy on May 6th.
Federal Budget Threats: Medicaid and SNAP in the Crosshairs
Higuera concluded by highlighting Supervisor Heinz's concerns about potential federal cuts to Medicaid and SNAP (food assistance). He encouraged listeners to contact Representative SCiscomani, noting that even modest cuts to these programs would mean fewer federal dollars flowing into Arizona.
"There's just no justifiable reason to say we need to cut people off of their health insurance in order to give additional tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans," Higuera stated, calling the proposal "a raw deal."
The audacity of slashing healthcare and food assistance while further enriching billionaires encapsulates everything wrong with our current political economy. Apparently, the "pro-life" stance extends only to fetuses, not to living people who need healthcare and food.
Democracy at the Crossroads: Will We Rise to the Challenge?
As Trumpism's economic promises crumble and housing affordability reaches crisis levels, Arizonans face profound questions about our collective future. Will we continue pursuing economic policies that benefit the wealthy few while squeezing working families out of their homes? Or will we embrace bold solutions like Supervisor Heinz's housing proposal, which acknowledges the market's failures and takes direct action?
The RTA controversy demonstrates how vital transparent governance is to addressing our region's challenges. Without accountable leadership and democratic representation proportional to the population, we risk paralysis on crucial infrastructure decisions.
Despite these challenges, there's reason for hope. The fact that housing affordability has rocketed to a top-three concern shows that voters recognize that the status quo isn't working. As Noble's polling reveals, this recognition crosses political lines, creating opportunity for coalition-building around real solutions.
The question is whether we have the political will to challenge the failed orthodoxies that got us here. Will we demand that our elected officials actually deliver on economic promises rather than just scapegoating immigrants? Will we insist on housing policies that serve people rather than just developers and speculators?
These are the questions that will define Arizona's future—and they're questions that need your voice.
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Join the Conversation
What do you think about Supervisor Heinz's three-cent property tax proposal for affordable housing? Is it a reasonable investment in our community's future, or should we be looking at different solutions? And what about Trump's economic performance—are you experiencing the prosperity he promised, or seeing the warning signs Noble identified?
Share your thoughts in the comments below—your perspective matters to this ongoing conversation about Arizona's future.
Quotes:
"Trump had a negative 12 job approval rating... What's interesting is that we're seeing his job approval rating with the economy will be tethered to his overall approval rating." - Mike Noble explaining how Trump's economic reputation is collapsing
"Only 13% of Arizona voters said housing is affordable... 28% [said] housing is so expensive that I've considered moving out of the state." - Mike Noble revealing the shocking housing affordability crisis
"Housing is a huge pain point. But I think a huge opportunity for anyone running for office, or in office right now, is that they can not only come up with a solution for it or actually do something about it could score massive points with the electorate." - Mike Noble on the political opportunity in addressing housing
"He had been repeatedly failing to agendaize his own performance review... he was sort of foregoing any potential raises over these last several years just in order to not have a performance review." - David Higuera on RTA Executive Director Farhad Moghimi's avoidance of accountability
"There's just no justifiable reason to say we need to cut people off of their health insurance in order to give additional tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans." - David Higuera on proposed federal cuts to Medicaid and SNAP
People Mentioned:
Bill Buckmaster - Host of the Buckmaster Show, veteran Tucson broadcaster with 37 years in the market
Mike Noble - Founder of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, political pollster who revealed Trump's negative approval ratings and Arizona's housing crisis
Quote: "Another recent national poll I just saw... 70% of people think that we're heading into a recession soon."
Donald Trump - Current US President whose economic promises are failing to materialize according to polling
Context: His approval rating is negative 12 points and "tethered" to economic concerns
Matt Heinz - Pima County Supervisor, who was attending to family matters and couldn't appear on the show; proposed a 3-cent property tax increase for affordable housing
David Higuera - Chief of Staff for Supervisor Matt Heinz who appeared in his place
Quote: "Each homeowner, if this were to pass, the average homeowner next year would see about a $7 increase in their tax bill."
Farhad Moghimi - Executive Director of RTA/PAG whose leadership is under fire
Context: Accused of lack of transparency and favoring smaller communities over Tucson
Mayor Regina Romero - Tucson Mayor mentioned as pushing for more equitable voting at RTA, given Tucson's population
Context: Has pointed out that while Tucson represents 55% of the county's population, it gets just one vote (11%) at the RTA table
Representative Juan Ciscomani - Mentioned as someone constituents should contact regarding potential Medicaid and SNAP cuts
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It's been a train wreck, hasn't it?